Iran ships 4 million barrels of oil despite US blockade, trackers say

Strait of Hormuz

Iran is still moving oil — even under a US naval blockade — undercutting Washington’s effort to choke off its energy lifeline and easing fears of an immediate global supply shock.

Tanker trackers and media reports say Tehran has loaded at least 4.6 million barrels of crude — amounting to nearly $400 million worth of crude — at its export terminals in recent days, with another four million barrels appearing to have crossed the blockade line.

Satellite imagery cited by monitoring firms shows some vessels “going dark” — switching off transponders to slip past surveillance and deliver cargo beyond restricted zones.

With Iran along the northern coast of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, its geographic edge makes such evasion easier.

The data points to a more resilient export network than markets had anticipated, even as the United States ramps up maritime pressure in and around the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

For markets, the message is simple: the feared supply shock is not here — yet.

At a glance – blockade vs reality

• 4.6m barrels loaded at export terminals
• 4m barrels appear to have crossed blockade line
• Tankers “going dark” to evade tracking
• Strait of Hormuz still key global chokepoint
• Market odds of oil ATH by April 30: 1.1% (down from 2%)
• Indicates supply not fully disrupted

Prediction markets tracking the chances of crude hitting an all-time high by April 30 have sharply cooled, with odds dropping to about 1.1%, down from roughly 2% just 24 hours earlier. Traders say the shift reflects growing confidence that flows, while disrupted, are not collapsing.

The reaction has been amplified by thin trading conditions, where relatively small bets can move prices sharply. But the direction is clear — sentiment has softened as evidence mounts that Iranian barrels are still finding their way to market.