New York, October 21, 2026 : Global warming projections have worsened, with temperatures expected to exceed previous estimates even under the most optimistic scenario, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The report projects that global average temperatures could rise to 1.7–1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century under the best-case scenario. Achieving this outcome would require urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, despite the expansion of renewable energy and climate policies in many countries.
According to UNEP, global emissions would need to fall by 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. However, current national climate plans are projected to deliver reductions of only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.
Under existing policies, the report estimates that global temperatures could rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. If countries fully implement their existing climate pledges, warming could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius. Both projections are higher than those published last year, reflecting factors including the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.
As countries prepare for the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments to maintain their efforts to curb emissions driving floods, wildfires and other climate-related disasters.
Guterres stressed that exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold would not mean abandoning efforts to limit warming, saying temperatures could still be brought back below that level by the end of the century if the overshoot is kept as limited and brief as possible.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
UNEP said limiting warming to 1.5 degrees without, or with only limited, overshoot was no longer considered achievable. Its new lowest-overshoot scenario instead offers roughly a 50% chance of returning temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below by 2100.
The report added that climate plans submitted since the previous assessment had made virtually no difference to projected warming. Reaching the 1.5-degree target again would depend on large-scale carbon removal, whose feasibility remains uncertain.
Source: QNA
