UN and Global Experts Warn Intensifying El Niño Could Spark Severe Weather and Food Crises

 The United Nations has issued urgent warnings that El Niño conditions are strengthening, raising the likelihood of widespread droughts, floods, and extreme storms across multiple regions of the world.

According to the latest World Food Programme (WFP) report, El Niño has already developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with an 80–90 percent probability of intensifying through 2026. Officials caution that this event could rank among the strongest on record. WFP stressed that early, coordinated action is essential to protect millions of vulnerable families before livelihoods are lost.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) echoed these concerns, noting that El Niño is expected to peak between July and September as sea surface temperatures rise across the central and eastern Pacific. The agency emphasized that the phenomenon is inevitable, with mounting risks of extreme weather events in Africa, Asia, the Americas, and the Pacific.

Carl Skau, Acting Executive Director of WFP, warned that the international community has only a narrow window to avert another major food crisis. He underscored that anticipatory measures — such as distributing drought‑resistant seeds, preparing flood evacuation plans, and strengthening early warning systems — are far more cost‑effective than post‑disaster recovery.

Historical precedent underscores the urgency: the 2015–2016 El Niño left 60 million people food‑insecure. Experts warn that similar shocks could escalate hunger crises today, especially in regions already under strain from high energy and fertilizer prices driven by geopolitical tensions.

Regional impacts are expected to vary:

• In southern Africa and the Sahel, drought could devastate crops and grazing lands.
• In the Horn of Africa, heavy rainfall may trigger floods, damaging harvests and disrupting markets.
• In Central America and the Caribbean, prolonged drought threatens small‑scale farmers.
• Across Asia and the Pacific, both drought and flooding could hit staple crops.

Dr. Mohsen Abdullah Al Yafei, Professor of Marine Environment at Qatar University, told QNA that El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years but is now intensifying due to global warming. Rising ocean temperatures, he explained, are driving abnormal heatwaves in Europe, floods in some regions, and droughts in others. He warned that this event could be 60 percent stronger than the last and may extend into early 2027.

Al Yafei highlighted multiple risks: prolonged heatwaves, rising mortality rates, wildfires, flash floods, landslides, declining agricultural yields, and marine ecosystem collapse. Coral reefs - home to 90 percent of marine life - are particularly vulnerable, with survival threatened if sea temperatures exceed 32°C. He cautioned that continued El Niño events could push coral ecosystems toward extinction by 2050.

The professor also stressed the economic toll, from soaring food prices and insurance costs to disrupted fisheries and food chains. He urged stronger coordination between the UN, donor countries, and humanitarian agencies to act before disaster strikes, emphasizing that every dollar invested in prevention can save seven in future losses.

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